The unrealistic plans for gas power plants in Lusatia: turbine shortage, investor mistrust and power supply at risk

After the political decision to replace the Lusatian lignite-fired power plants with gas-fired power plants, the plans are facing a fundamental crisis. Not only is the necessary gas missing, but also the gas turbines required worldwide, whose demand is currently exploding. There are only a few gas turbine manufacturers on the international market who have been able tobooked in advance. The German federal government is planning dozens of new gas-fired power plants, but practically no manufacturer would engage in such transactions without enormous financial security – and that against the background of the intention of closing gas-fired power plants again in the medium term.

A limited market spectrum and global supply bottlenecks

Gas turbine manufacturers such as Siemens Energy, GE Vernova and Mitsubishi dominate the global market. These companies are fully booked with orders from other countries, such as the USA or Asia. While other nations such as Vietnam and the USA are building massively new gas-fired power plants and thus retaining international turbine producers in the long term, Germany is facing the problem ofunrealistic plans and little secured financing to be supplied at all. Gas turbine prices are rising rapidly, and the prospect of covering the need from their own resources is getting further and further away.

No credible business model for investors and manufacturers

The repeated political commitments to quickly exit all fossil energies – including gas – increase uncertainty: neither manufacturers nor investors are interested in entering a market that is to be closed in the medium term. Without long-term guarantees and stable framework conditions, financing from such large projects is practically impossible. hencethere is no basis for planning an energetic changeover in Lusatia at all, while the old infrastructure is to be switched off more and more.

Risk of power scarcity and cost explosions

With the dismantling of the Lusatian lignite-fired power plants, there are no predictable, inexpensive power sources. Electricity costs are constantly increasing, brownouts and nationwide supply gaps will become more likely in the coming years. At Brownouts, entire regions are deliberately taken off the power to prevent a total blackout. Who in Lusatia on stable energy supplyis in need of sitting in the dark, while prices for electricity and infrastructure are becoming more expensive.

The need to preserve lignite and mining

The unmistakable reality is that Lausitzer lignite-fired power plants are indispensable for security of supply and price stability. Their sudden exit from the power mix would further exacerbate the already fragile situation. The capacities of the power plants and mining in the area not only have to be preserved, but expanded. This is the only way the Lausitz territories can get one againgain important importance for the entire energy security of Europe.

Short-sighted promises and the big gap in the supply

The current political plans to build gas-fired power plants in Lausitz as a replacement are completely unrealistic in view of global supply bottlenecks and market economy uncertainties. Electricity prices are exploding, investors are withdrawing and the risk of brownouts is growing. Without the preservation and expansion of the Lusatian lignite-fired power plants, there is a risk of a massive loss of energy and prosperity,While those responsible for the political are still sticking to dreams of the future, the realization of which is far from the actual possibilities.