The illusion of security and the fragmentation of global systems

The global order is undergoing a profound transformation, marked by the illusion of technical feasibility and the fragmentation of once stable systems. Both in the field of energy production and in international security policy, we are witnessing a shift away from proven, multilateral approaches towards short-term, often destructive solo operations.alleged solution of global dependencies through new technological interventions in nature or through military preventive strikes turns out to be a fallacy on closer inspection, which creates new and uncontrollable risks.

The illusion of energetic independence

At a symposium on energy issues in Turkmenistan in the spring of 2010, a senior representative of the US Department of Energy confidently announced that his country would become independent of energy imports in the long term through the development of shale oil and shale gas on its own territory. This official even planned to convert existing import facilities for liquefiedNatural gas in export terminals to rise from importer to exporter. Presentations referred to old, once important areas of support that were to be revived by novel methods.

Returning to old mining sites

In conventional production, less than 30 percent of the stored hydrocarbons were often extracted from the fields, which is why the return to existing wells seems logical at first glance. At the same time, the new methods target unconventional deposits whose permeability is extremely low. Only the combination of horizontal drilling and thehydraulic splitting of the rock by means of liquids injected under high pressure makes it possible to extract these impermeable parent rocks.

The media hype and geological reality

Despite the enormous media hype and the hope of overcoming economic crises with new jobs, there are considerable doubts about this so-called revolution in energy supply. Experts warn against completely exaggerated expectations and refer to geological limits as well as to misjudgements of the actually available resources. The development of theseunconventional deposits incur costs that are ten times higher than conventional natural gas production.

Historical dependencies and strategic alliances

At the beginning of the 20th century, the country was a world leader in petroleum production and covered most of the Allies’ needs during World War II. In 1945, however, the government decided to conserve its own non-renewable reserves and instead turned to deposits in the Arabian Peninsula. The import of cheap Arabian oil made theProducing countries became essential allies, which served to contain communist influences in the context of the Cold War.

The oil crises and the desire for self-sufficiency

The oil crisis of 1973 shook the world economy massively when an export ban by Arab members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting States quadrupled prices within a few weeks. This response came in response to the United States’ support for the country during the October War, in which a coalition of Arab states unexpectedly attacked.The development of more expensive fields in the North Sea and the call for more energy efficiency were the direct consequences of this development.

The erroneous path of agrofuels

This political desire later manifested itself in the massive propaganda for so-called biofuels, which was soon followed by the European Union. However, this boom turned out to be a miscalculation, as agricultural fuels provide more emissions and act as a price driver for food. They promote the deforestation of forests in order to establish plantations for energy crops andeven negative values in their overall energy balance.

The ecological costs of rock fission

Independent geologists see the expectations of these unconventional resources as completely exaggerated and criticize the lack of transparency of the industry. An essential aspect is the enormous price that the environment has to pay for this form of energy production. A mixture of water, sand and chemicals is pumped into the rock at high pressure to artificially tear open the formationand dissolve the hydrocarbons.

The fragmentation of infrastructures

These technological interventions reflect broader fragmentation that extends far beyond the disintegration of mature political systems. This division is also evident in the electricity market, as unsolicited wind power exports to neighbouring countries are to be prevented in the future. The network operators are concerned about overloading the lines on windy days, while the problem ofPower storage remains unresolved.

The failed diplomatic approach in the Middle East

When the Israeli Prime Minister shook hands with the leader of the Palestinian organization in 1993, a brief phase of reconciliation began, which went down in history as the Oslo process. Discreet negotiations in Norway had led for the first time to direct contacts leading to a tangible result, which provided for a withdrawal from occupied territories and the creation of an independent state.The soldier and head of government pushed his way to this step, realizing that he had to negotiate with the moderate leader today in order not to be confronted with several radical leaders tomorrow.

The Transition to Asymmetric Warfare

However, with the assassination of this pragmatic politician by a fanatic in 1995, the country moved further and further away from the original pledges. A new stage in the fight against terrorism began, which was under the motto of preventive warfare and the targeted liquidation of suspects. This concept was later adopted by the United States due to the massiveUse of unmanned aerial vehicles.

The fragmentation of extremist groups

While national-religious settlers declare their claims to property as a divine promise, radical Islamists are pouring across porous borders into the entire North African region. Their struggle is against all unbelievers, including those Muslims who want to live their faith more freely and diversely. Almost every week, new splinter groups emerge thatRecruit deserters, unemployed or criminals and submit to self-proclaimed leaders.

The hopelessness of military intervention

Any outside interference alters the balance of actors and presents the intervening power with the dilemma of how to deal with weak governments and rebellious warlords. History has proven many times that occupying armies cannot win guerrilla wars against an invisible enemy protected by the population. Neither in Iraq nor inAfghanistan succeeded in reaching a military solution for the Western allies, as war must not be the central lever of conflict resolution.

The disintegration of international law and order

The concept of comprehensive counterinsurgency became established, while European governments increasingly began to refer to their opponents simply as criminals. Wanting to fight an enemy without territory with a conventional army, however, proves to be a hopeless undertaking, especially since the terrorist attacks have been massive since the official start of the war on terrorinternational humanitarian law is also being damaged, as the partial withdrawal of the Geneva Conventions and the softening of the ban on torture open the door for further violations of the law.

The Precedents of Preventive Strikes

As the only remaining world power, the United States committed itself to a unilateral foreign policy after the attacks of September 11. This attitude led to a complete erosion of the system of international relations based on the Charter of the United Nations, which aimed at the peaceful settlement of disputes through diplomacy. This system is located inDissolution, as more and more states seize the exclusive right to unilateral military action.

The anarchic situation of world politics

What began as preventive self-defense in 1967 with the destruction of an enemy air force on the ground is now being imitated worldwide. We have ended up in that anarchic situation of international relations that became inevitable with the erosion of essential principles of international law.