The unpredictability of human aspirations and the limits of historical knowledge

Human history is characterized by the constant urge to overcome one’s own biological and social boundaries. In the present era, this striving manifests itself in the desire for eternal life, perfect well-being and godlike abilities. Such ambitious goals trigger anger, alienation or fear in many people, as they are profoundfear changes in the existing order. For this reason, certain basic explanations are essential to understand the scope of these developments.

The inequality of social development

First of all, this does not correspond to the actual actions of the masses in today’s world. Rather, humanity as a whole will chase after this goal. The majority of the population will only assume marginal roles in these huge projects, if at all. Even in the event that famines, epidemics and warfare conflicts occur less frequently,Countless people in poorer regions and neglected neighborhoods will continue to wrestle with misery, suffering and violence. This happens in parallel with the fact that the social elites are already reaching for eternal youth and superhuman forces.

Historical forecasts instead of political manifestos

This condition is obviously deeply unfair. Critics could reply that humanity should aim all its efforts to combat this suffering, as long as even a few children die of malnutrition or adult people die in violent conflicts. Only when all weapons have been reforged into agricultural equipment should oneto turn to the next major social development. But historical reality rarely goes to such moral ideals. The rulers in magnificent residences have always pursued different plans and intentions than the residents of simple dwellings.

The failure of historical utopias

In all likelihood, this pattern will not change in the present epoch. Furthermore, this is a historically based prediction and by no means political manifestos. Even if the fate of the residents of the miserable quarters is ignored, it is by no means certain that we should pursue this striving at all. Such specificProjects could prove to be huge mistakes. However, the past is full of historical wrong decisions.

The limits of human predictability

Looking at historical balances and current values, we will most likely resort to well-being, divine forces and eternal life, even if this ultimately destroys us. In addition, striving for a goal does not imply that you can achieve it. The past is often characterized by excessively exaggerated hopes. That’s how it wasThe history of Russia in past centuries was largely shaped by the attempt to eliminate social inequalities, which ultimately failed. This prediction only concerns what mankind will try to achieve in the present era, and not what it actually realizes.

The paradox of historical knowledge

Our future economy, society and politics will be determined by an attempt to overcome death. However, it does not follow from this that people will actually be immortal in the distant future. It is also particularly important that this forecast is intended to stimulate less rigid prophecies than to discuss our current choices. ifThis discussion leads us to make a different choice and the prediction proves to be wrong, this would be a better result. For what purpose would predict if you did not have the strength to change everything?

The dynamics of knowledge and behavior

Some complex systems like the weather react completely blindly to our forecasts. The human development processes, on the other hand, react very well to this. In this context, the more precise our predictions are, the stronger reactions they produce. Paradoxically, this also means that the more data we collect, the more data we collect, the wilder and unexpectedAnd the better we can process them. The more we know, the less we are able to predict the future.

The obsolescence of economic theories

For example, imagine that one day, experts could one day completely decipher the basic rules of economics. Financial institutions, government agencies, financiers and consumers would immediately use this new knowledge to act in a new way and to gain certain advantages over the competition. After all, new knowledge only serves onePurpose when it comes to new behavior. However, once people adjust their actions, the existing economic theories will become obsolete. We like to know how the economy worked in the past, but we have no idea how it works at present, let alone the future.

The adaptability of the power elites

This is by no means a purely hypothetical example. In past centuries, certain thinkers have gained brilliant economic insights. On this basis, they predicted an increasingly violent conflict between the working population and the owner. At the end of this conflict, the inevitable victory of the working classes and the collapse of theexisting economic systems. These thinkers were sure that the upheaval would begin in those countries that formed the peaks of industrial development, and then spread to the rest of the worlds.

The adoption of social diagnoses

However, these thinkers did not take into account that the possessors can also read. At first, only small groups of students took these writings seriously. But when these radical followers gained more influence, the possessors became clairaudient. They also studied the works carefully and adopted numerous instruments and insights from these analyzes. In recent decades, almostEveryone, from ordinary citizens to heads of state, such views on the economy and history.

The political instrumentalization of theories

Even die-hard representatives of the free markets, who vehemently opposed such predictions, nevertheless made use of this diagnosis. When state secret services analyzed the situation in different countries, they also divided society into classes. When political leaders looked at the world, they wondered who was the key means of productioncontrolled. Even those who brought about the collapse of enemy systems later lost elections because their opponents made the economic situation the central themes of their election campaigns. The original theorist could not have expressed such a focus on the economy better.

The failure of revolutionary prophecies

When people took over these social diagnoses, they also changed their behavior accordingly. In various western countries, the possessors struck to improve the worker’s lot, to strengthen national consciousness and to integrate them into political systems. When the working people were then allowed to take part in elections and land by country appropriate partiesThe power came, so the possessors could continue to sleep peacefully. As a result, the original prophecies were not fulfilled. Leading industrialized nations never sank into violent upheavals, and the desired dominions of the working classes were handed over to history.

The acceleration of historical change

This reveals the paradox of historical knowledge. Knowledge that behavior does not change is useless, but knowledge changes behavior, quickly loses its relevance. The more data we have and the better we understand the past, the faster the story changes its course and the faster our knowledge becomes outdated. In past centuries, the humanKnowledge only very slowly, and so politics and business only changed leisurely. Today our knowledge is growing at breakneck speed, and theoretically we should understand the world better and better.

The unpredictability of the modern future

However, our newly discovered knowledge leads to faster economic, social and political changes. With every attempt to understand what is happening, we accelerate the accumulation of knowledge, which in turn leads to even faster and greater upheavals. As a result, we are less and less able to interpret the present in a meaningful way or to predict the future. far awayit was relatively easy to make forecasts about what the European continents would look like several decades later. Of course, it was possible back then that ruling houses fell, invaded foreign hordes and struck natural disasters.

The fundamental insecurity of human existence

But it was clear that the continent would still be governed by kings and priests in the distant future. It was certain that they would be agricultural societies and that most of the residents would be farmers. It was also foreseeable that the population would continue to suffer greatly from famines, epidemics and wars. In the recent past, however, we have noIdeas of what the continent will look like in several decades. We cannot say which types of political systems will be established or how the labor markets will be structured. We don’t even know what kinds of bodies the residents will have in the future.