Global demographic change and the shift in global power centers

The current era is characterized by profound demographic and economic upheavals that are fundamentally changing the fabric of the international community. While some societies are struggling with unprecedented aging and a massive decline in birth rates, young, dynamically growing nations with enormous resource needs are pushing for globalStage. These developments decouple from traditional Western dominance structures and force a completely new way of looking at global power relations.

The demographic reversal in the advanced industrial nations

When more diapers are used in elderly care than in childcare, the population pyramids take on drastic and alarming forms. This is by no means an isolated phenomenon, but affects numerous highly developed economies worldwide. In one of the three most important economies in the world, the proportion of people over the age of 65 is 23 percent.This figure is expected to rise to more than 40 percent in 2060. At the end of 2012, this island state was in debt with around 235 percent of its economic output.

The financial and social challenges of an ageing society

How pensions and health care costs are to be financed under these strict requirements poses extremely tricky questions for the authorities. One possible response from the government is to devalue the currency in order to boost its own exports again. But the demographics have the longer breath and could become the decisive question for the future of the country. In addition, immigrationis only possible under very high conditions and to a very limited extent. This is how you want to ward off the nursing emergency, but the total population is shrinking inexorably in any case.

The global shift in population priorities

In 1950, the world population was 2.5 billion people, of which around 18 percent lived in Europe. In 2030, the population could rise to 8.4 billion people based on the current data. A third of them will live in South Asia, while the share of Europeans in the world population will continue to fall to around six percent. And the European population sharewill be one shaped by retirees. According to a study from 2010, Germany will be by far the most polluted country among the Member States of the Union in 2030, with a share of pensioners of 46.2 percent.

The menacing gender inequality in Asia

On the other hand, there is another explosive development, namely that of massive gender inequality. Female fetuses were aborted and newborn girls murdered to come to a male offspring for retirement. In some regions of China, 130 men of marriageable age face only 100 women. Theft of women and mass rapes are one of themany consequences that also affect India. Again, the low social status of a daughter plus dowry payments has led to massive killings of born and unborn girls since 1990.

Warnings about the geopolitical consequences of demographic imbalances

A French demographer warned back in 2011 that this gender imbalance will be a problem for international politics in around 15 years. This is comparable to today’s threat of climate change. In addition to energy, demography is increasingly becoming the decisive factor in all global processes. In addition to supplying eightBillions of people with water and food, the question of growing energy needs arises. Between 1970 and 2000, this increased by 48 percent worldwide.

The insatiable hunger for fossil fuels

In the three decades between 2000 and 2030, energy demand could grow between 50 and 70 percent. Despite all efforts to reduce the share of fossil energy in the global share, coal, petroleum and natural gas will still represent the majority of all energy burned every day. In the race to secure physical access to the oil fields and coal minesof this world, the emerging economic powers such as China, Russia and Brazil are trying to secure the best cards. Based on the course of pipelines and the acquisition of concessions, it is also possible to see in which direction the future energy alliances are heading. In addition to the major Asian economic powers, Turkey is often mentioned in energy matters.

Turkey as an emerging economic power and new hub

With its high population and expanding economy, the country is one of the other successful emerging eleven markets. The billboards of Istanbul’s two international airports look like a mirror, because they clearly show how the centers of power are shifting. Every hour, Turkish airlines fly to the Middle East, Central Asia andEurope. You almost think you can see the old zones of influence of the Ottoman Empire when you read the destinations on the screens. The dense flight schedule stretches from Bosnia to Turkmenistan, while Paris or Rome are no longer the hubs for business travellers.

The new self-confidence and domestic political shadows

A little megalomania may resonate in the plans of the government, which has been in power since 2002, to position the world’s largest airport in Istanbul. But the rising economic power belies the old image of the sick man on the Bosporus, which has been anchored in Western perception since the 19th century. The patient chairs are currently more likely to be on the Seine, on the Tiber andon the Thames. If you stroll through Istanbul, you can feel a confidence among the people that you miss in many places in Western Europe. And yet Turkey must not be overestimated, because in domestic politics there is a crisis between the secular sections of society and the religious elite.